- Political parties’ glorifying letter to Aliyev
On 16 October, twenty-three political parties signed an open letter addressed to president Aliyev, congratulating him on the Karabakh takeover and “the successful domestic and foreign policy” leading to it. The letter emerged after Aliyev’s first visit to Khankendi/Stepanakert, where he raised the Azerbaijani flag – on the day of the 20th anniversary of his presidency. “Equal treatment of our citizens belonging to different ethnic and religious identities living in our country, ensuring freedom of speech and opinion, development of democracy and pluralism, establishment of political dialogue can be considered the pillars of today's proud history of our country. There is no doubt that all these are only great deeds. It was made possible as a result of the determination of a political leader who serves and aims at higher goals, who thinks about his state and people at every step,” said the letter. Republican Alternative Party (ReAl) was among the signatories. At least five party chairmen who signed the letter served as political prisoners in the past. The letter drew negative reactions from commenters and civil society representatives, who pointed to the dangerous trend of full subjugation of parties as a post-war political reality.
- Election preparations
The past week has seen growing media reports on a foreseen referendum to be held in Azerbaijan in the coming months. The state budget proposal submitted to the parliament has validated the speculations of a likely referendum. According to the preliminary state budget for the year 2024, the financial allocations to the Central Election Commission have been increased by 2.3 times compared to 2023. Although only a municipal vote is formally expected for the next year, the significant extent of the allocated budget – 111 million manats – signals preparations for more than one election. Independent analysts expect a referendum before the municipal and parliamentary elections for several reasons. First, after reclaiming the entire Karabakh, there is a need to adjust the regional governance. Officials also admit that in the current system, municipalities have limited authority, as they are not formally considered a state institution. Thus, the status of municipalities is expected to be boosted alongside regional representatives of the president. Dissolution of the current executive powers is inevitable in such an arrangement. Second, the autonomous status of Nakhchivan is to be revoked and fully integrated into Azerbaijan’s centralized political and administrative system. Moreover, due to the increased population and reintegration of Karabakh, it is expected that the number of seats in the parliament will be increased.
- Increased detentions
An increased number of cases of politically motivated detentions were reported in the past week. On 18 October, a citizen was taken to the police department and physically pressured after adding a comment, “it would be better if oil revenues would be redistributed justly to the population,” under Meydan TV social media post about Aliyev’s statement about welfare. An activist, Mahaddin Orujov, was also detained on 18 October and sentenced to 30 days of administrative detention for criticizing the president on social networks. At least four members of the opposition Popular Front Party, including its chairman’s bodyguard Kanan Zeynalov and known activist Orkhan Bakhishli, have also been detained in October. The ruling party representative stated that the reports of detentions over criticizing the president are “lies and slander.”
- War crime trials
On 18 October, Baku Military Court continued to hear the case of Vagif Khachaturyan, a recently detained Karabakh resident, accused of mass atrocities against Azerbaijanis in Meshali village in 1991 during the first Karabakh war. At least 25 people were killed, and more than 358 were displaced as a result of the Meshali massacre. While the court is hearing 58 registered victims in the case, 70-year-old Khachaturyan has denied his involvement in the massacre, claiming that it was planned in Armenia. Khachaturyan was arrested on 29 July at the Lachin corridor while trying to cross to Armenia.