High-level U.S. official visits Baku to normalize relations
Following a period of turbulence in US-Azerbaijan relations – coupled with elevated anti-American propaganda (see Issue 108 for details) – assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs, James C. O'Brien, visited Baku on 6 December. O’Brien noted that his meeting with president Aliyev was “positive and constructive.” He also announced a meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers in Washington DC soon, adding that the Azerbaijani energy minister will also visit the US – hinting that the US has lifted its earlier decision to suspend high-level official visits from Baku. Both government-affiliated and critical experts commented that the US-Azerbaijan relations are now back on track and despite the war of words in the Azerbaijani state media against the US, the situation was not severe and unresolvable. However, on 6 December, in his speech for foreign experts at ADA university, Aliyev criticized the US for attempting to interfere in Azerbaijan-Iran relations.
Aliyev sets snap election for 7 February
On 7 December, president Aliyev signed a decree on holding a snap parliamentary elections on 7 February 2024, fifteen months earlier than the original vote day. No official justification has so far been brought regarding the decision. Ruling party MPs linked the decision to geopolitics. “Different and rapid processes are taking place in our region. Against the background of all these processes, it is necessary to take a prompt step and stay ahead of them,” said MP Namig Hamzayev. Experts and opposition politicians stressed that snap elections are normally intended for times of political crisis and while there is no such crisis in Azerbaijan, it is believed that Aliyev is rushing to extend his hold on power for more seven years earlier than 2025. It is speculated that the reasons might be potential instabilities related to a final decision on the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Azerbaijan, elections in the US and Russia in 2024 and potentially changing balance of powers in the region, and economic decline that is foreseen in the country.
New oppositional political group emerges in Baku
On the day president Aliyev declared a snap presidential election, a new oppositional group political group emerged in Baku. “The Third Republic” was founded by seven public figures, including the former chairman of the NGO Institute for Democratic Initiatives, Akif Gurbanov, renowned economist Rovshan Aghayev and human rights lawyer Samed Rahimli. The political platform will be managed by the board of the seven founding members, who voted for Akif Gurbanov to be the organization's spokesperson for a year. The Third Republic stated that all government and traditional oppositional parties in Azerbaijan were formed around the issue of the Karabakh conflict and this issue was used by the government to consolidate power and to justify curtailing freedoms. “However, the main ideological identity of both ruling and opposing political forces continues to be nationalism and statism, which is the main political impetus for authoritarianism," the Third Republic added. The platform expressed its ambition to forge a “post-Karabakh agenda” with five core elements:
- Abandoning extremely statist political logic and transition to modern political system;
- Restoring trust in electoral system;
- Reducing disbalance in regional inter-regional development by decentralization;
- Eliminating politically-driven income inequality and endemic corruption;
- Reducing impacts of climate change, especially in agriculture;
- Sustainable economic development policy.
Armenia and Azerbaijan issue first bilateral statement in their history
Notwithstanding seemingly stalled peace talks, on 7 December, offices of the Azerbaijani president and Armenian prime minister issued a joint statement affirming an agreement on “taking serious steps in the direction of building trust between the two countries.” It became the first bilateral statement of Azerbaijan and Armenia in their histories and a sign of direct negotiations without the involvement of third parties. Most importantly, in a humanitarian move, Baku and Yerevan agreed to exchange prisoners. Azerbaijan will release 32 imprisoned Armenian military servicemen, while Armenia will send back two Azerbaijanis. Armenia decided to withdraw its candidacy in favor of Azerbaijan to host the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference.